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Sunday, October 6, 2024

Predicting the 2024 Heisman Trophy Winner

SportPredicting the 2024 Heisman Trophy Winner

The Athletic’s Heisman draft is back, with a new crop of challengers undertaking the tricky task of projecting this year’s most outstanding player. With all four of 2023’s finalists off to the NFL as top-12 draft picks, this year’s field looks as wide open as the race for the newly expanded College Football Playoff. Will a blue-blood program’s leading man take home the hardware, or will a breakout star no one sees coming steal the show?

The format of this annual preseason exercise remain the same: We arranged writers in a randomized snake draft order and gave them four rounds to take their pick of this season’s Heisman candidates. In December, the writer whose four picks have totaled the most points earns 12 months of bragging rights.

Our scoring system:

  • Heisman Trophy winner: 15 points
  • Second-place finish: 9 points
  • Third place: 8 points
  • Fourth place: 7 points
  • Fifth place: 6 points
  • Sixth place: 5 points
  • Seventh place: 4 points
  • Eighth place: 3 points
  • Ninth place: 2 points
  • 10th place: 1 point
  • Invited to New York City: +5 bonus
  • Midseason Heisman leader: +5 bonus

Here was the randomized order of our snake draft: 1. Justin Williams; 2. David Ubben; 3. Seth Emerson; 4. Stewart Mandel (last year’s champion, on the strength of his first-round pick Jayden Daniels and his second-round pick Bo Nix); 5. Sam Khan Jr.; 6. Scott Dochterman; 7. Chris Vannini; 8. Manny Navarro; 9. Bruce Feldman.

Writer Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4

Williams

Carson Beck

Jackson Arnold

DJ Uiagalelei

Ashton Jeanty

Ubben

Dillon Gabriel

Garrett Nussmeier

Miller Moss

Kaidon Salter

Emerson

Luther Burden

Emeka Egbuka

Brady Cook

James Pearce

Mandel

Jalen Milroe

Shedeur Sanders

TreVeyon Henderson

Tez Johnson

Khan

Quinn Ewers

Ollie Gordon

Conner Weigman

Donovan Edwards

Dochterman

Nico Iamaleava

Quinshon Judkins

Cam Rising

Abdul Carter

Vannini

Travis Hunter

Avery Johnson

Jalon Daniels

Byron Brown

Navarro

Riley Leonard

Will Howard

Noah Fifita

Kyron Drones

Feldman

Jaxson Dart

Cam Ward

Jeremiah Smith

Dylan Raiola

Round 1, Pick 1: QB Carson Beck, Georgia

Beck feels like the safest possible choice. He’s a returning starting quarterback for the preseason No. 1 team, he’s college football’s leading returning passer in terms of total yards (3,941) and he set Georgia’s single-season school record for completion percentage (72.4 percent) in 2023. He’s also the top QB prospect in the admittedly weak 2025 NFL Draft class and has a wealth of talent around him. This kid is going to put up numbers. Despite a tough schedule, the Bulldogs are a sure bet for the 12-team Playoff, and barring injury, Beck has a very clear path to being at least a Heisman finalist. — Williams

Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein turned Bo Nix into a Heisman candidate and first-round pick after three uneven years at Auburn. Stein should have even more to work with in Gabriel, who has been far more productive over five years at two different programs, throwing 55 touchdowns in his two seasons at Oklahoma. Gabriel has two elite targets in Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart and should have one of the highest floors of any player in America. — Ubben

Round 1, Pick 3: WR Luther Burden, Missouri

A receiver as the third overall pick? Well, I could’ve gone chalk and picked Quinn Ewers, but I decided not to be boring. And Burden is anything but boring. A five-star recruit who could’ve gone anywhere, he opted to stay home at Missouri, put up huge numbers when moved to the slot as a sophomore (86 catches, 1,212 yards, nine touchdowns) and should top those this year. He’s the best non-quarterback in the country — unless that’s the guy I took with my second pick. — Emerson

Round 1, Pick 4: QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama

How on earth did you guys let Milroe fall to me at No. 4? He was a top-six vote-getter last year, and the five guys ahead of him are all in the NFL. And that was during an up-and-down first season as starter that saw him benched in September. I expect Milroe to make a big leap this season and put up bigger numbers playing in Kalen DeBoer’s offense. As long as Alabama makes the Playoff, he’ll be in great shape. — Mandel

Round 1, Pick 5: QB Quinn Ewers, Texas

Getting Ewers at No. 5 feels like good value. If Texas wins the SEC or comes close, its veteran QB will be a big reason. The Longhorns’ entire collection of starting skill position talent is new, so the third-year starter will be leaned upon to lead. If he steps up to the challenge, he should garner at least an invitation to New York City. — Khan

Round 1, Pick 6: QB Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee

Iamaleava could not have faced a more difficult test in his first career start, and he passed it in superb fashion. Against a tenacious Iowa defense in the Citrus Bowl, Iamaleava completed 12 of 19 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown and ran for three scores. The Hawkeyes rang up six sacks, but Iamaleava was poised and executed the Vols’ game plan in a 35-0 win. He has prototypical size (6-6, 215) and every other skill required of an elite quarterback. He just needs experience — and some big-time SEC victories. — Dochterman

Round 1, Pick 7: WR/DB Travis Hunter, Colorado

The uber-talented Hunter played more snaps than any player in the FBS last season despite missing three-and-a-half games, and he earned first-team All-America honors with 721 receiving yards and five touchdowns on offense and three interceptions on defense. Hopefully Colorado doesn’t have to use him as much, for the sake of his physical health, but he’s going to be a key player on both sides of the ball again, and he enters 2024 with more hype and expectation. If Colorado can at least reach a bowl game, Hunter will be a big reason for the improvement, and the Heisman hype will follow. — Vannini

Once Hunter (who I think will win this year’s Heisman) went off the board, I decided my best bet was a dual-threat quarterback who has transferred to a prominent program — that genre of player has taken home the award in three of the last five years. Leonard isn’t the accurate passer Sam Hartman was for most of his career, but he’s tough as hell and armed with better receivers than Hartman had last year in South Bend. If the Irish get past Texas A&M in the opener they’ll likely be favored in every game the rest of the way. Leonard’s last game before Heisman ballots are due is at USC, which means people will be watching. — Navarro

Round 1, Pick 9: QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

I was very surprised Dart was still available. He’s the headliner for a legit CFP contender. I think he will pile up gaudy stats in the first half of the season playing for an aggressive head coach in Lane Kiffin who would love to have a Heisman contender to sell to future recruits. After the season’s midpoint, Dart has a bunch of marquee games (at LSU, at Oklahoma, home against Georgia). He has NFL tools and some good skill talent around him. — Feldman


Round 2, Pick 1 (No. 10 overall): QB Cam Ward, Miami

I think Manny will really regret taking Leonard over Ward, especially with the news this month that Notre Dame starting left tackle Charles Jagusah is lost for the year. I’m expecting Ward to put a spark back into the Canes. He’s what they’ve been missing as a playmaker and a leader, and this will be the best O-line he’s played behind in college. — Feldman

When you land the quarterback of the preseason No. 2 team with the second pick in the second round, that’s good Heisman draft value. Howard’s numbers against eight FBS teams with winning records last season with Kansas State weren’t special, but Chip Kelly is his offensive coordinator now, and Howard has oodles of weapons around him. If Ohio State wins at Oregon and finishes the regular season unbeaten, I can’t imagine a scenario where Howard isn’t at least a Heisman finalist. — Navarro

Round 2, Pick 3 (No. 12 overall): QB Avery Johnson, Kansas State

Johnson had to come one pick after Will Howard, didn’t he? People around Kansas State believe they kept the better quarterback, and Johnson is ready to shine as he takes over the starting job. The dual-threat former top-100 recruit is wicked fast, as seen by his 10.1 yards per carry in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. He’ll need to improve his accuracy and completion rate as a sophomore, but he didn’t throw an interception in 66 passes last year. In a wide-open Big 12, Kansas State has as good a shot as anybody, and if the Wildcats are in the mix for a conference title, Johnson could be in the Heisman conversation. Or maybe this is a year or two early. — Vannini

Round 2, Pick 4 (No. 13 overall): RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State

Is this too early for a running back? Derrick Henry was the last Heisman winner at the position, in 2015. Judkins is going to feast for Ohio State, which has the best 1-2 punch at running back since maybe Arkansas’ Felix Jones and Darren McFadden. Judkins was dinged up a bit last year at Ole Miss, but the talent is unquestionable. The only question is, will he get enough carries with TreVeyon Henderson around? — Dochterman

Round 2, Pick 5 (No. 14 overall): RB Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State

Gordon led the FBS in rushing yards last season (1,732) and finished second in rushing TDs (21), and the Cowboys were thrilled to get him back for another season. If he can take Oklahoma State back to the Big 12 championship game, he should get Heisman consideration. — Khan

Round 2, Pick 6 (No. 15 overall): QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

One of the keys to winning a Heisman is name recognition, and boy does this guy have it, between his lofty NFL Draft stock and umpteen NIL deals. Love or hate his dad, Shedeur is a special talent who completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,230 yards, 27 touchdowns and three interceptions last season. And that was despite having the worst pass protection in the country. He’ll need better blockers this fall, and most importantly, the Buffs need to do considerably better than 4-8. — Mandel

Round 2, Pick 7 (No. 16 overall): WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

After taking Burden in the first round, why not double down at receiver? Egbuka missed three games in 2023 and was limited in others, but two years ago when he was fully healthy Egbuka put up 1,151 receiving yards. The Buckeyes have another loaded group of pass catchers, even with Marvin Harrison Jr. off to the NFL, but Egbuka is set up to explode this fall in one of the nation’s best offenses. — Emerson

Round 2, Pick 8 (No. 17 overall): QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

I bought as much Nussmeier stock as I could after seeing him let it rip against Georgia in relief of Jayden Daniels in the SEC championship game two years ago. He followed that up with 395 yards and three scores in last year’s bowl win over Wisconsin. Even though he’ll take the reins as a first-year starter with a new offensive coordinator in Joe Sloan and co-OC Cortez Hankton and without top wideouts Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, the talent is obvious. If Nussmeier can put up numbers and carry LSU into the Playoff in Brian Kelly’s third year, he might find himself in New York. — Ubben

Round 2, Pick 9 (No. 18 overall): QB Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma

This is a pick based on pedigree: Arnold’s and Oklahoma’s. The former five-star recruit steps into a starting role after Gabriel’s transfer to Oregon. Arnold looked like a promising but unpolished true freshman in limited action last season, completing 44 of 69 pass attempts (63.8 percent) with four touchdowns and three picks. He does represent some significant change for the Sooners, who join the SEC this season and have a new offensive coordinator in Seth Littrell. It’s asking a lot of a sophomore and first-year starter in the SEC to be in Heisman contention. But if the Sooners manage to thrive this season, an Arnold emergence is the most likely scenario. — Williams


There’s precedent for Seminoles coach Mike Norvell turning transfer quarterbacks into Heisman candidates. Jordan Travis had more years in the system, but Uiagalelei has the experience and physical traits to pull off a leap like the one Travis made during his final two years in Tallahassee. Uiagalelei was solid but still streaky in his lone season at Oregon State. If Norvell can fully unlock the obvious talent and Uiagalelei can improve his efficiency, keeping a reloaded Seminoles squad in the Playoff hunt could earn him some Heisman buzz. — Williams

Round 3, Pick 2 (No. 20 overall): QB Miller Moss, USC

Caleb Williams is gone, but Lincoln Riley is still very much in Los Angeles, and so is all-purpose threat Zachariah Branch. The Trojans added Woody Marks from Mississippi State to beef up the run game that will support USC’s new starting QB, who threw six touchdowns in the bowl game after Williams began the draft process. Did you know Spencer Rattler is the only quarterback under Riley’s tutelage since the coach joined a power program to not throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 3,000 yards in every season as starter? — Ubben

Round 3, Pick 3 (No. 21 overall): QB Brady Cook, Missouri

Now I’ll double down on Missouri’s offense, after taking Burden in the first round. Cook may be the most underrated quarterback in the SEC. He threw for the fourth-most passing yards last year behind Beck, Daniels and Dart, and this year he still has Burden and Theo Wease. Missouri’s schedule is fortuitous enough — avoiding Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss — to see the Tigers going 11-1 and Cook getting the credit. — Emerson

Round 3, Pick 4 (No. 22 overall): RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

I realize I’m not even taking the first Ohio State running back in this draft, but Henderson and Quinshon Judkins could both run for a ton of yards in Chip Kelly’s offense. Of the two, Henderson is more explosive and likely to rack up a bunch of Heisman highlights. I’m under no delusion he’s going to actually win the Heisman, but he could be good for a top-10 finish. — Mandel

Round 3, Pick 5 (No. 23 overall): QB Conner Weigman, Texas A&M

The former five-star recruit has played just five games in his Texas A&M career. He closed out the 2022 season after injuries to the quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart and had a promising start to 2023 before an injury cut it short. If he can stay healthy and A&M’s front can pass protect — something it has done a poor job of in the last two seasons — Weigman has the potential to be one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC. Dane Brugler has him fourth among 2025 NFL Draft-eligible passers. If A&M can shape an uber-talented roster into a dark horse Playoff contender, it doesn’t seem out of the question for Weigman to get some Heisman buzz. — Khan

Round 3, Pick 6 (No. 24 overall): QB Cam Rising, Utah

This feels like a third-round steal. Rising led the Utes to consecutive Pac-12 titles in 2021 and ’22 but sat out last year after tearing knee ligaments in Utah’s second consecutive Rose Bowl appearance. Now, Utah shifts to the Big 12, and big numbers could await Rising and the Utes’ offense. — Dochterman

Round 3, Pick 7 (No. 25 overall): QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas

We know Daniels can be an electric player — he just needs to stay healthy. He has never played more than nine games in a season, including just three in 2023. Hopefully that changes this year, because he’s got a team around him that could make a run. The Jayhawks are a preseason Top 25 team, and if they take charge of a wide-open Big 12, Daniels will be a key factor. — Vannini

Round 3, Pick 8 (No. 26 overall): QB Noah Fifita, Arizona

Fifita’s QB rating in 2023 (165.92) is seventh-best among returning FBS quarterbacks. He tied Beck for the fourth-best completion percentage in college football last season (72.4). He returns one of the best receivers in the country in Tetairoa McMillan. Yes, the Wildcats are in a new conference and have a new coach. But if Arizona has another stellar season, Fifita and McMillan are going to get the majority of the credit and a lot of narrative love for not leaving the program via the transfer portal. That’s a strong way to earn a spot in the Heisman race. — Navarro

Round 3, Pick 9 (No. 27 overall): WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

I was really hoping Weigman would still be here at the end of the third round, but I’m happy with Jeremiah Smith. I get that he’s a freshman and a receiver, but he’s a rare talent. People I trust at Ohio State are having a hard time containing their excitement about him and what they’ve seen from him since he arrived. I don’t know if a first-year wideout who doesn’t return kicks can win the Heisman today, but I do think he can get to the ceremony and finish in the top three or four if people are convinced he’s the most talented player on the best team. — Feldman


Round 4, Pick 1 (No. 28 overall): QB Dylan Raiola, Nebraska

I waffled on my last pick between Ashton Jeanty, Kyron Drones and Dylan Raiola. I opted for the Huskers’ freshman quarterback because I think Nebraska will be much improved this fall and Raiola has the ability to be a program-changer. — Feldman

Round 4, Pick 2 (No. 29 overall): QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech

It’s Year 3 for Brent Pry in Blacksburg, and Drones is perfectly positioned to be the frontman of a great comeback story after shining in Virginia Tech’s bowl win over Tulane. The Hokies are a dark horse to win the ACC and have a loaded receiver room. I’m very happy with this pick. — Navarro

Round 4, Pick 3 (No. 30 overall): QB Byrum Brown, USF

Brown has won the Heisman Trophy several times in my College Football 25 dynasties, so why not in real life? I know it’s highly unlikely a Group of 5 player will ever win the Heisman, but only two players in 2023 passed for at least 3,000 yards and ran for 800: Brown and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. If Brown can take another big step forward in his second season under Bulls coach Alex Golesh and stand out in nonconference games against Alabama and Miami, who knows? — Vannini

Four defensive linemen have finished second in Heisman voting: Aidan Hutchinson in 2021, Hugh Green in 1980, Tom Brown in 1960 and Alex Karras in 1957. Can Carter join that category? It depends on whether he can become a Micah Parsons-like force this year, as some in Happy Valley think. The move from linebacker to defensive end should generate sacks, which will garner attention. But as with Ndamukong Suh in 2009, Carter will probably fall just short even if he is the nation’s most outstanding player. — Dochterman

Round 4, Pick 5 (No. 32 overall): RB Donovan Edwards, Michigan

Getting one of the EA Sports College Football 25 cover athletes this late in the draft feels like a steal. We’ve seen Edwards’ potential, from his 216-yard performance against Ohio State in 2022 to his starring role in the national championship game against Washington. But last year was turbulent for Edwards. Without Blake Corum and other veteran leaders from the Wolverines’ championship squad, Edwards will be looked to as a leader. Can this be the year he puts it all together? — Khan

Round 4, Pick 6 (No. 33 overall): WR Tez Johnson, Oregon

I figured I’d take a late-round flier on a guy who could win the Biletnkioff. Johnson caught 86 passes for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns last season while largely operating in the shadow of more-established star Troy Franklin. He figures to be the Ducks’ No. 1 guy this fall in what should be another explosive passing offense led by Gabriel. — Mandel

Round 4, Pick 7 (No. 34 overall): Edge James Pearce Jr., Tennessee

Someday the voters will wise up and choose the best player in the nation, even if he plays defense. Will this be the year? Of course not. But let’s be a cockeyed optimist anyway. Pearce begins should improve on his 9.5 sacks from last year and will also put together some viral highlights, the kind that get you Heisman buzz … right up until a couple of quarterbacks emerge. — Emerson

Liberty’s blowout Fiesta Bowl loss to Oregon may weigh down the respect the Flames can earn among many onlookers, but coach Jamey Chadwell is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the sport, and his team has an excellent chance to go 13-0 again and win the C-USA. Salter is an electrifying dual-threat quarterback who fuels that offense. Liberty will face questions about its schedule again, but it does travel to Appalachian State in nonconference play, where Salter can cement himself as the best player in the Group of Five. — Ubben

The reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year finished in the top ten in rushing yards per game last season (112.3) and second in the country behind Gordon in total yards from scrimmage (1,916). The Broncos are one of the favorites to earn the Group of 5 Playoff spot out of the Mountain West, and Jeanty will have some marquee regular-season showcases against Oregon and the Pac-2. — Williams

(Top illustration photos: Christopher Creveling, John David Mercer / USA Today)

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